TOP PICK
QPR
PROJECTED: 2-1
78%
CONF 72
WIN PROBABILITY
78%
QPR
16%
Draw
6%
Derby
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
73%
17%
10%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
92%
5%
3%
DL
25% WEIGHT
78%
16%
6%
FINAL BLEND
78%
16%
6%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.29 vs 0.71
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
3-0
0.0%
4
2-1
0.0%
5
1-1
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
72%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
88%
BTTS NO
12%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
QPR lead 2-1 at 59'; one-goal margin at midpoint favors home but Derby comeback remains plausible.
·
One-goal lead past halfway — stronger than near full-time but not lock-in
·
BTTS already achieved; likely to remain given open play so far
·
~31 minutes remaining allows Derby time for equalization if momentum shifts
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
83%
Carlton Morris
AWY · F · 12g/30
2
17%
Patrick Agyemang
AWY · 10g/37
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
5
QPR
1
Draw
4
Derby
25 Oct
1-0
14 Feb
4-0
05 Oct
2-0
18 Apr
1-0
29 Nov
1-2
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.