⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Athletic Club
PROJECTED: 1-1
46%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
46%
Athletic C...
28%
Draw
26%
Celta Vigo
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
39%
31%
30%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
53%
19%
28%
DL
25% WEIGHT
46%
28%
26%
FINAL BLEND
46%
28%
26%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.08 vs 0.92
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
54%
BTTS NO
46%
💎 VALUE BETS
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
Celta's superior league position and away-road form edge conflict with Athletic's home-venue role; lean slight home edge but expect draw or Celta upset.
·
Celta 6th (+50pts, +4 GD) vs Athletic 9th (+44pts, -13 GD) — quality gap favours away
·
Athletic home form poor (LWLWL) while Celta away form decent (WLLLW) — negates home advantage
·
Bookmaker overweighting home at 43.3%; our 46% suggests marginal value to home, but uncertainty high
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
33%
Williot Swedberg
AWY · F · 5g/10
2
28%
Borja Iglesias
AWY · F · 14g/33
3
21%
Ferran Jutglà
AWY · F · 9g/28
4
19%
Gorka Guruzeta
HOM · F · 9g/31
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
5
Athletic C...
1
Draw
4
Celta Vigo
14 Dec
2-0
19 Jan
1-2
22 Sep
3-1
15 May
2-1
10 Nov
4-3
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.