TOP PICK
Derby
PROJECTED: 0-1
47%
CONF 62
WIN PROBABILITY
25%
Charlton
28%
Draw
47%
Derby
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
27%
31%
42%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
27%
19%
54%
DL
25% WEIGHT
25%
28%
47%
FINAL BLEND
25%
28%
47%
PREDICTED SCORE
0 - 1
xG 0.81 vs 1.09
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
0-1
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
1-0
0.0%
5
0-2
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
18%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
22%
BTTS NO
78%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CHARLTON FACTORS
+20%
Charlton's home form catastrophic (1W-4L in last 5 at Valley)
DERBY FACTORS
+25%
Derby 1-goal lead at 46' — low-scoring pattern typical in this matchup
+15%
Derby's away record mixed (1W-3L) but H2H shows Derby slight edge (3W-1D-1L in last 5)
CONTEXT
·
Derby leading 1-0 at HT with Charlton's poor home form (WLLLL); away win favoured.
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
83%
Carlton Morris
AWY · F · 12g/31
2
17%
Patrick Agyemang
AWY · 10g/37
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Charlton
2
Draw
5
Derby
20 Jan
1-2
30 Sep
1-1
30 Dec
2-1
19 Oct
3-0
16 Apr
0-1
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.