GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Werder Bremen
Sat, 02 May · 13:30
Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
TOP PICK
Werder Bremen
PROJECTED: 1-1
48%
CONF 52
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Werder Bre...
27%
Draw
25%
FC Augsbur...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
39% 31% 30%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
55% 18% 27%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 27% 25%
FINAL BLEND
48% 27% 25%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.09 vs 0.91
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
58%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
64%
BTTS NO
36%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 27% 3.80 +2.5%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.90 -1.0%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 64% 1.54 -1.4%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 75% 1.26 -5.8%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 25% 3.74 -6.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.61 -6.7%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 73% 1.24 -9.5%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.87 -10.4%
CONTEXT
· Evenly matched mid-table sides; bookmaker odds overstate home advantage given Werder's weak home form.
· Werder home form WLLWL (2W-3L) is poor; Augsburg away form WDLLW (2W-3L) similarly weak
· Augsburg slightly better league position (9th vs 12th) and table points (37 vs 32)
· H2H split: Augsburg won 2025-01-19 (2-0), but Werder won 2024-04-27 (3-0) and drew 2024-08-24 (2-2) — no clear pattern
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
J. Stage
HOM · 10g/26
100%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Werder Bre...
2
Draw
5
FC Augsbur...
20 Dec 0-0
19 Jan 0-2
24 Aug 2-2
27 Apr 0-3
09 Dec 2-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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