GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Sturm Graz
Tue, 11 Aug · 18:30
Champions League
Fenerbahçe
TOP PICK
Sturm Graz
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 38
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Sturm Graz
32%
Draw
30%
Fenerbahçe
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
36% 31% 33%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
43% 23% 34%
DL 25% WEIGHT
38% 32% 30%
FINAL BLEND
38% 32% 30%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.03 vs 0.97
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
54%
BTTS NO
46%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 4.04 +53.7%
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 70% 2.03 +42.1%
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 4.03 +29.0%
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 68% 1.21 -17.5%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.52 -17.9%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.22 -24.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.53 -26.8%
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 30% 1.75 -47.5%
FENERBAHçE FACTORS
+20% Fenerbahçe slight edge on recent form (WDWWL vs LWWDW) and away record (DWDW shows resilience)
+15% H2H shows Fenerbahçe dominance (2–0 win 6 days ago, 2–1 win in 2017) but data gaps (no season stats, xG, clean sheets) prevent high confidence
CONTEXT
· Match just started (2'), data extremely thin; treat as baseline heuristic only, not actionable.
· Only 2 minutes played — minimal live information yet; scoreline neutral
⚽ NEXT GOALSCORER
1
Talisca
AWY · F · 4g/8
58%
2
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
AWY · M · 6g/9
42%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
0
Sturm Graz
1
Draw
1
Fenerbahçe
05 Aug 2-0
03 Aug 1-1
27 Jul 1-2
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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