GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Shakhtar Donetsk
Thu, 30 Apr · 19:00
Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace
TOP PICK
Shakhtar Donetsk
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Shakhtar D...
28%
Draw
34%
Crystal Pa...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
35% 31% 34%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
43% 19% 38%
DL 25% WEIGHT
38% 28% 34%
FINAL BLEND
38% 28% 34%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.02 vs 0.98
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
54%
BTTS NO
46%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
30 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 3.70 +40.6%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 66% 1.79 +18.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 2.11 +1.3%
Both Teams Score — YES
16 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.83 -1.0%
Draw
30 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 3.37 -5.7%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.31 -6.0%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.25 -22.6%
AWAY to Win
30 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 34% 2.00 -31.9%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
· Evenly matched; bookmaker overvalues away win. Slight home edge offset by Palace's superior recent form.
· Shakhtar home form mediocre (WLW); Palace away form poor (LLWWL) — edges cancel
· League standings favour Shakhtar (+2 pts, -0 GD), but Palace's recent form LDLWW better than WDWLW
· BTTS odds (1.90) imply 52.6% but neither team defensive standout; market fairly priced
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
I. Sarr
AWY · 7g/11
63%
2
J. Mateta
AWY · 10g/27
37%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
← Back to match