GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Cerro Porteno
Wed, 19 Aug · 22:00
Copa Libertadores
Palmeiras
TOP PICK
Palmeiras
PROJECTED: 1-1
44%
CONF 52
WIN PROBABILITY
24%
Cerro Port...
32%
Draw
44%
Palmeiras
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
30% 31% 39%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
26% 23% 51%
DL 25% WEIGHT
24% 32% 44%
FINAL BLEND
24% 32% 44%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 0.92 vs 1.08
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 0-1
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 1-0
0.0%
5 0-2
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 24% 4.73 +13.4%
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 56% 1.93 +7.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 2.48 +4.4%
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 2.16 +3.8%
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 3.20 +2.4%
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 68% 1.32 -10.1%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 76% 1.17 -10.8%
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 44% 1.85 -18.6%
PALMEIRAS FACTORS
+30% Early stalemate at 0-0 (5 min); Palmeiras' away form and table position favour them, but Cerro's home record weak.
+25% Palmeiras 5-match away unbeaten streak (WDWWW) vs Cerro's poor home form (DWLLL)
+20% Palmeiras 11 pts / 10 GF suggests stronger squad; Cerro 13 pts / 6 GF more defensive
+15% H2H split (1W Cerro, 2D, 2W Palmeiras) + bookmaker draw at 28.6% supports draw; market away-heavy (51.8%) may be overpricing Palmeiras
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Jhon Arias
AWY · F · 3g/8
29%
2
José Manuel López
AWY · F · 3g/8
29%
3
Pablo Vegetti
HOM · F · 3g/8
29%
4
Ramón Sosa
AWY · 2g/4
12%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
1
Cerro Port...
1
Draw
6
Palmeiras
12 Aug 1-1
21 May 0-1
30 Apr 1-1
08 May 0-2
10 Apr 1-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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