GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Cruz Azul
Thu, 14 May · 02:00
Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas
TOP PICK
Cruz Azul
PROJECTED: 1-0
48%
CONF 54
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Cruz Azul
32%
Draw
20%
Guadalajar...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
43% 31% 26%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
56% 23% 21%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 32% 20%
FINAL BLEND
48% 32% 20%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.11 vs 0.79
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 3.30 +5.5%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 80% 1.32 +5.4%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 2.18 +4.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.89 -1.5%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 68% 1.29 -12.6%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.64 -14.6%
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.69 -18.9%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 20% 3.18 -36.4%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CRUZ AZUL FACTORS
+30% Tight first half with no clear dominance; Cruz Azul slight home edge but Chivas' superior league position (2nd vs 3rd) limits advantage.
+20% Cruz Azul strong home form (WWDWW) vs Chivas weak away form (LDLLL) — home edge real but modest
+15% Chivas 2nd place vs Cruz Azul 3rd (3-pt gap) — quality near-parity; H2H recent history slightly favours home (2-1, 3-2 wins in last 3)
CONTEXT
· 0-0 at 27' with balanced early play — live state dominates; draw probability rises late if status quo holds
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Armando González
AWY · 24g/34
43%
2
José Paradela
HOM · M · 10g/38
29%
3
Gabriel Fernández
HOM · 14g/31
28%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
6
Cruz Azul
2
Draw
2
Guadalajar...
22 Feb 2-1
01 Dec 3-2
28 Nov 0-0
31 Aug 1-2
30 Mar 0-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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