⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Corinthians
PROJECTED: 1-2
43%
CONF 52
WIN PROBABILITY
28%
Penarol
29%
Draw
43%
Corinthian...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
16%
20%
63%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
31%
20%
49%
DL
25% WEIGHT
28%
29%
43%
FINAL BLEND
28%
29%
43%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 2
xG 0.94 vs 2.06
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
0-2
0.0%
2
0-1
0.0%
3
1-2
0.0%
4
1-1
0.0%
5
0-3
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
38%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
Corinthians' dominant league position and recent form edge favours away win; Penarol's home record is weak.
·
Corinthians 1st, 10 pts (7 GF, 1 GA) vs Penarol 4th, 2 pts (3 GF, 6 GA) — massive gap
·
Penarol home form poor (1 loss recent); Corinthians away form stable (1 draw recent)
·
H2H: Corinthians won 2–0 at Penarol on 2026-05-01; repeat threat credible
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
83%
Matías Arezo
HOM · F · 2g/4
2
17%
Gustavo Henrique
AWY · D · 3g/6
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Penarol
0
Draw
0
Corinthian...
01 May
2-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.