GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Daejeon Citizen
Tue, 05 May · 07:30
K League 1
Incheon United
TOP PICK
Daejeon Citizen
PROJECTED: 1-1
48%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Daejeon Ci...
26%
Draw
26%
Incheon Un...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
39% 31% 30%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
55% 16% 28%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 26% 26%
FINAL BLEND
48% 26% 26%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.09 vs 0.91
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
45%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
52%
BTTS NO
48%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 26% 3.68 -4.2%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.84 -4.4%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 74% 1.29 -4.4%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.99 -4.6%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 74% 1.25 -7.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 45% 2.05 -7.7%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.75 -8.8%
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 26% 3.31 -14.0%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
· Evenly matched midtable clash; Daejeon slight home edge but Incheon's road form suggests close contest.
· Daejeon home form (LWWLD) mixed but overall record 5/8 pts recent vs Incheon 4/8 pts — marginal edge
· Incheon away form (WDDWL) shows defensive discipline (only 3 GA in last 5); limits Daejeon attacking upside
· SportMonks favors away (40.8%) vs bookmaker (27.5%) — signals tighter contest than odds; AI splits difference
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Stefan Mugoša
AWY · F · 6g/12
70%
2
Morgan Ferrier
AWY · F · 2g/11
18%
3
Diogo Oliveira
HOM · F · 1g/12
12%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Daejeon Ci...
1
Draw
4
Incheon Un...
18 Mar 1-3
10 Nov 1-2
17 Aug 2-1
18 May 0-1
30 Mar 2-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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