GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Fagiano Okayama
Sun, 17 May · 05:00
J1 League
Shimizu S-pulse
TOP PICK
Fagiano Okayama
PROJECTED: 2-0
96%
CONF 88
WIN PROBABILITY
96%
Fagiano Ok...
3%
Draw
1%
Shimizu S-...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
79% 15% 6%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
98% 1% 1%
DL 25% WEIGHT
96% 3% 1%
FINAL BLEND
96% 3% 1%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 0
xG 2.38 vs 0.52
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 3-0
0.0%
4 2-1
0.0%
5 4-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
8%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
2%
BTTS NO
98%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 96% 2.45 +135.4%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 99% 1.37 +35.5%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 97% 1.33 +29.0%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 8% 2.18 -82.5%
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 3% 3.08 -90.7%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 4% 1.51 -93.9%
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 2% 1.85 -96.3%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 1% 2.93 -97.1%
CONTEXT
· Fagiano up 2-0 with 90 minutes played; match effectively over. Lock home win.
· 2-goal lead at full-time (90') — comeback near-impossible in remaining time
· Fagiano making defensive substitutions (85') to protect lead; Shimizu passive late
· Shimizu have not scored; Fagiano clean sheet + multiple goal threat eliminates BTTS
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Oh Se-Hun
AWY · F · 7g/16
100%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
1
Fagiano Ok...
4
Draw
4
Shimizu S-...
14 Mar 1-1
06 Dec 1-2
02 Mar 1-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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