GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Mito Hollyhock
Sat, 16 May · 05:00
J1 League
Tokyo Verdy
TOP PICK
Mito Hollyhock
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Mito Holly...
28%
Draw
34%
Tokyo Verd...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
35% 31% 34%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
43% 19% 38%
DL 25% WEIGHT
38% 28% 34%
FINAL BLEND
38% 28% 34%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.02 vs 0.98
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
51%
BTTS NO
49%
💎 VALUE BETS
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 2.65 +11.4%
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 51% 2.12 +8.2%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 2.84 +7.9%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.37 -1.6%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 66% 1.44 -5.2%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 34% 2.66 -9.6%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.39 -13.8%
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 2.90 -18.7%
TOKYO VERDY FACTORS
+25% Tokyo Verdy 7 pts ahead in table with superior goal differential (+1 vs -13)
CONTEXT
· Away team has clear quality edge (4th vs 7th, +GD vs -GD) but poor road form (DLLLL) keeps this tight.
· Mito home form LDWDW mixed but Verdy away form DLLLL is dire — neutralizes visitor advantage
· Recent form divergence (Verdy DLLWW trending up, Mito LLDDL trending down) partly offset by venue
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Itsuki Someno
AWY · F · 4g/9
43%
2
Arata Watanabe
HOM · F · 4g/13
42%
3
T. Yoshida
AWY · 4g/11
15%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Mito Holly...
2
Draw
6
Tokyo Verd...
08 Feb 3-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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