GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Nagoya Grampus
Wed, 29 Apr · 06:00
J1 League
Fagiano Okayama
TOP PICK
Draw
PROJECTED: 1-1
43%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
42%
Nagoya Gra...
43%
Draw
15%
Fagiano Ok...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
40% 31% 29%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
49% 36% 16%
DL 25% WEIGHT
42% 43% 15%
FINAL BLEND
42% 43% 15%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.11 vs 0.89
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
38%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
52%
BTTS NO
48%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 43% 3.32 +42.8%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.87 +8.7%
HOME or Draw (1X)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 85% 1.21 +3.0%
Both Teams Score — YES
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.90 -1.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 2.13 -18.9%
HOME to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 1.89 -20.7%
HOME or AWAY (12)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 57% 1.29 -26.3%
AWAY to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 15% 4.14 -37.9%
CONTEXT
· Tied 1-1 with 1 minute to go; draw is most likely, small home edge from position + quality.
· Current state (89' minute, 1-1 scoreline) anchors draw probability very high
· Nagoya position 2 vs Okayama position 8 — underlying quality favours home, but late stage limits it
· Okayama yellow cards (83', 85') reduce late-game intensity; Nagoya substitutions suggest control
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Yudai Kimura
HOM · F · 6g/13
50%
2
Yuya Yamagishi
HOM · F · 6g/13
50%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
5
Nagoya Gra...
3
Draw
0
Fagiano Ok...
01 Mar 1-1
13 Sep 0-1
06 May 0-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
← Back to match