GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
FC Cincinnati
Wed, 19 Aug · 23:30
Major League Soccer
New York City FC
TOP PICK
Draw
PROJECTED: 1-1
58%
CONF 68
WIN PROBABILITY
28%
FC Cincinn...
58%
Draw
14%
New York C...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
38% 31% 32%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
32% 53% 15%
DL 25% WEIGHT
28% 58% 14%
FINAL BLEND
28% 58% 14%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.06 vs 0.94
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
22%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
78%
BTTS NO
22%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 4.03 +133.6%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.90 +37.1%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 78% 1.44 +12.2%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 86% 1.27 +9.1%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 1.85 -48.2%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 1.21 -49.0%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 14% 3.63 -49.1%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 22% 1.45 -68.1%
CONTEXT
· Tied at 89' with one minute of regulation left; draw is heavily favored. Extra time possible but statistically rare.
· 1-1 scoreline at 89' (1 min to regulation end) — draw is default outcome
· Both teams have substituted heavily (5 each) suggesting tactical lockdown late
· H2H history shows high-frequency draws (1-1 current, 0-0 in 2024) and volatile scorelines (4-4 in 2026)
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
K. Denkey
HOM · F · 11g/19
38%
2
Evander
HOM · F · 11g/19
38%
3
N. Fernández Mercau
AWY · M · 13g/19
25%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
4
FC Cincinn...
2
Draw
4
New York C...
22 Apr 4-4
23 Aug 0-1
04 May 1-0
09 Nov 0-0
02 Nov 3-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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