GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
New York Red Bulls
Sat, 16 May · 23:30
Major League Soccer
New York City FC
TOP PICK
New York Red Bulls
PROJECTED: 1-1
42%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
42%
New York R...
28%
Draw
30%
New York C...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
37% 31% 32%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
48% 19% 33%
DL 25% WEIGHT
42% 28% 30%
FINAL BLEND
42% 28% 30%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.05 vs 0.95
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
62%
BTTS NO
38%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 2.60 +9.3%
HOME or Draw (1X)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 70% 1.52 +6.3%
Draw
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 3.65 +2.1%
HOME or AWAY (12)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.26 -9.4%
Both Teams Score — YES
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.45 -10.4%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.46 -15.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.54 -17.1%
AWAY to Win
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 30% 2.46 -26.1%
CONTEXT
· Even match between equal-ranked teams; NYCFC's superior road form and better defence (GA 18 vs 30) offset Red Bulls home edge.
· NYCFC on road: WLWWW vs Red Bulls at home: WLDWL — away team form advantage is real
· Defensive gap: NYCFC GA 18 vs Red Bulls GA 30 — suggests tighter match than home-field angle implies
· Identical recent form (WWLLD) and equal points (18) — quality genuinely even
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Julian Hall
HOM · F · 9g/13
50%
2
Nicolás Fernández
AWY · F · 9g/13
50%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
New York R...
1
Draw
6
New York C...
27 Sep 2-3
17 May 2-0
23 Nov 0-2
28 Sep 1-5
18 May 2-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
← Back to match