GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Moreirense
Sat, 16 May · 14:30
Primeira Liga
AVS
TOP PICK
Moreirense
PROJECTED: 2-1
56%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
56%
Moreirense
26%
Draw
18%
AVS
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
67% 19% 14%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
65% 16% 18%
DL 25% WEIGHT
56% 26% 18%
FINAL BLEND
56% 26% 18%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.15 vs 0.85
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 2-1
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
56%
BTTS NO
44%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 56% 2.09 +17.0%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 82% 1.30 +6.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.89 -1.5%
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 56% 1.73 -3.1%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 74% 1.28 -5.5%
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 26% 3.47 -9.9%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 44% 1.72 -24.4%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 18% 3.39 -38.9%
AVS FACTORS
+20% AVS road form WDLDD is poor but recent overall form WWDDD shows upward trend
CONTEXT
· Moreirense favoured at home but AVS improving form and desperate points; expect tight match with goals.
· Moreirense 7th (42 pts) vs AVS 18th (20 pts) — quality gap favours home but not decisive
· Moreirense home form WWLLD mixed; AVS have conceded 67 GA (most vulnerable) — over 2.5 likely
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Guilherme Schettine
HOM · 9g/15
100%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Moreirense
1
Draw
0
AVS
03 Jan 0-2
17 May 0-3
04 Jan 1-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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