TOP PICK
Guimaraes
PROJECTED: 2-0
58%
CONF 61
WIN PROBABILITY
58%
Guimaraes
22%
Draw
20%
Casa Pia
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
70%
19%
12%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
67%
12%
21%
DL
25% WEIGHT
58%
22%
20%
FINAL BLEND
58%
22%
20%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 0
xG 2.15 vs 0.75
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
2-1
0.0%
4
3-0
0.0%
5
1-1
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
GUIMARAES FACTORS
+30%
Guimaraes home form (WWLDW) and league position (8th vs 16th) favour a comfortable win; expect low-scoring but decisive.
CONTEXT
·
Guimaraes at home significantly stronger (WWLDW) vs Casa Pia on road (LLLDL)
·
13-point league gap and +10 goal difference advantage heavily favour home team
·
Casa Pia's last 5 (LLLDL) shows relegation-form fragility; H2H 0-0 suggests Guimaraes can contain
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
100%
Samu
HOM · M · 7g/26
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Guimaraes
4
Draw
2
Casa Pia
28 Dec
0-0
01 Mar
1-0
28 Sep
1-1
24 Feb
0-2
23 Sep
0-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.