GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Sporting CP
Mon, 04 May · 19:15
Primeira Liga
Guimaraes
TOP PICK
Sporting CP
PROJECTED: 2-0
73%
CONF 62
WIN PROBABILITY
73%
Sporting C...
17%
Draw
10%
Guimaraes
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
74% 17% 9%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
86% 6% 8%
DL 25% WEIGHT
73% 17% 10%
FINAL BLEND
73% 17% 10%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 0
xG 2.25 vs 0.65
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 3-0
0.0%
4 2-1
0.0%
5 1-1
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
62%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
38%
BTTS NO
62%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 17% 5.63 -4.4%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 90% 1.06 -4.9%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 73% 1.29 -5.5%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 27% 3.50 -5.6%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 83% 1.12 -6.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.47 -9.2%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 10% 8.93 -10.7%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 1.81 -31.1%
GUIMARAES FACTORS
+30% Sporting's dominance in quality and home form favours a comfortable win; Guimaraes' poor away record (WDLLL) is the key limiting factor.
+25% Sporting 31-point league lead (73 vs 42 pts) with +55 GD vs Guimaraes' -5 GD
+20% Sporting home form DLLWW shows recent inconsistency; Guimaraes away form WDLLL is dire (1W in 5)
CONTEXT
· Bookmaker odds (76% home) slightly high given Sporting's flat recent form (DDLDW); AI 73% reflects caution
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Luis Javier Suárez
HOM · F · 27g/31
62%
2
Pedro Gonçalves
HOM · M · 13g/26
20%
3
Samu
AWY · M · 7g/26
11%
4
Francisco Trincão
HOM · M · 7g/33
8%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
7
Sporting C...
1
Draw
2
Guimaraes
23 Dec 1-4
17 May 2-0
03 Jan 4-4
21 Apr 3-0
09 Dec 3-2
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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