⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Arouca
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Arouca
28%
Draw
34%
Santa Clar...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
35%
31%
34%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
43%
19%
38%
DL
25% WEIGHT
38%
28%
34%
FINAL BLEND
38%
28%
34%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.02 vs 0.98
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
52%
BTTS NO
48%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AROUCA FACTORS
+20%
League position + GD favour Arouca (11th +/-21 vs 13th -10) but gap not decisive
CONTEXT
·
Evenly matched midtable clash; draw is live despite bookmaker slight home lean.
·
Arouca home form WWLWW vs Santa Clara road form DLWDD — both mixed, slight edge Arouca
·
BTTS implied 50% vs Under 2.5 implied 62% suggests low-scoring tendency; grind-out 1-1 likely
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
65%
Ivan Barbero
HOM · F · 8g/30
2
35%
Alfonso Trezza
HOM · M · 8g/31
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
5
Arouca
3
Draw
2
Santa Clar...
21 Dec
0-0
26 Apr
2-0
15 Dec
1-0
11 Feb
1-0
20 Aug
1-2
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.