TOP PICK
Mallorca
PROJECTED: 2-1
62%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
62%
Mallorca
22%
Draw
16%
Oviedo
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
69%
19%
13%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
72%
12%
16%
DL
25% WEIGHT
62%
22%
16%
FINAL BLEND
62%
22%
16%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.18 vs 0.82
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
2-1
0.0%
4
1-1
0.0%
5
3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
52%
BTTS NO
48%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
OVIEDO FACTORS
+20%
League standings show 10-pt gap (39 vs 29) despite identical goal-diff; Oviedo in relegation zone with 5-match losing streak
CONTEXT
·
Mallorca slight home favourite; Oviedo's relegation form (LLLLL) and weak away record (LLWLD) make them vulnerable.
·
Mallorca's strong home form (DDWWW) vs Oviedo's poor road record (LLWLD) — 3-win home streak is significant
·
Bookmaker odds (64.9% home, 12.5% away) broadly aligned with fundamentals — slight home edge defensible but not overwhelming
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
87%
Vedat Muriqi
HOM · F · 23g/37
2
13%
Federico Viñas
AWY · 9g/29
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Mallorca
5
Draw
1
Oviedo
05 Dec
0-0
11 Sep
1-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.