TOP PICK
Girona
PROJECTED: 1-1
48%
CONF 44
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Girona
26%
Draw
26%
Elche
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
39%
31%
30%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
55%
16%
28%
DL
25% WEIGHT
48%
26%
26%
FINAL BLEND
48%
26%
26%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.09 vs 0.91
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
Evenly matched relegation scrappers; bookmaker overvalues home win — draw or away upset credible.
·
Girona home form mediocre (DLLWW) vs Elche away form poor (LLWLL) — slight home edge only
·
Both teams in freefall (Girona LDDLL, Elche WLDLW) with poor goal differential (−16 / −8)
·
Market implies 53% home win but Elche's points-per-game (42 pts) vs Girona (40 pts) neutral; odds overweight home advantage
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
100%
André Silva
AWY · F · 10g/29
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
4
Girona
1
Draw
5
Elche
07 Dec
3-0
06 Jan
0-2
16 Apr
2-0
08 Nov
1-2
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.