⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Alaves
PROJECTED: 1-1
42%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
42%
Alaves
28%
Draw
30%
Rayo Valle...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
37%
31%
32%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
48%
19%
33%
DL
25% WEIGHT
42%
28%
30%
FINAL BLEND
42%
28%
30%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.05 vs 0.95
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
56%
BTTS NO
44%
💎 VALUE BETS
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
ALAVES FACTORS
+30%
Evenly matched; Alaves slight home edge offset by Rayo's superior league position and away form inconsistency favours draw.
+20%
Alaves home form weak (WLWDD) vs Rayo road form poor (DWWLL) — both unreliable
+15%
Recent form similar (Alaves WWDLW vs Rayo WDDWW) — toss-up intensity
CONTEXT
·
Rayo 4 pts ahead in table (47 vs 43) despite playing away; quality edge to visitors
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
26%
Lucas Boyé
HOM · F · 11g/29
2
26%
Toni Martínez
HOM · F · 14g/37
3
19%
Alemão
AWY · F · 4g/10
4
17%
Álvaro García
AWY · M · 6g/13
5
13%
Jorge de Frutos
AWY · F · 10g/36
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
4
Alaves
0
Draw
6
Rayo Valle...
14 Jan
2-0
26 Oct
1-0
29 Mar
0-2
26 Oct
1-0
10 Mar
1-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.