GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Oviedo
Sun, 17 May · 17:00
La Liga
Alaves
TOP PICK
Alaves
PROJECTED: 1-2
40%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
32%
Oviedo
28%
Draw
40%
Alaves
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
17% 21% 62%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
36% 19% 46%
DL 25% WEIGHT
32% 28% 40%
FINAL BLEND
32% 28% 40%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 2
xG 0.97 vs 2.03
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 0-2
0.0%
2 0-1
0.0%
3 1-2
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 0-3
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
51%
BTTS NO
49%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 4.04 +29.3%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 60% 1.81 +8.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 2.25 +8.2%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 51% 1.96 -0.1%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.31 -5.4%
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 3.33 -6.7%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 68% 1.24 -15.6%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 40% 1.99 -20.6%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
· Alaves slight favourite despite league position; Oviedo's relegation fight and poor form make away value at 2.08.
· Oviedo in freefall (LDLLD) and bottom-3 with -30 GD; Alaves mid-table despite poor record
· Alaves road form (DLDWL) slightly better than Oviedo home (DLDWW) — divergence favours away
· SportMonks model (44% home) and bookmaker odds (24% home) both signal away lean; AI sits between
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Toni Martínez
AWY · F · 14g/37
40%
2
Federico Viñas
HOM · F · 9g/29
33%
3
Lucas Boyé
AWY · F · 11g/29
28%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
1
Oviedo
2
Draw
1
Alaves
04 Jan 1-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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