GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Rayo Vallecano
Sun, 17 May · 17:00
La Liga
Villarreal
TOP PICK
Rayo Vallecano
PROJECTED: 1-1
45%
CONF 52
WIN PROBABILITY
45%
Rayo Valle...
28%
Draw
27%
Villarreal
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
38% 31% 31%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
52% 19% 30%
DL 25% WEIGHT
45% 28% 27%
FINAL BLEND
45% 28% 27%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.07 vs 0.93
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
48%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
54%
BTTS NO
46%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 3.60 +0.7%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 55% 1.79 -1.8%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 27% 3.60 -2.8%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 73% 1.29 -5.9%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.28 -8.0%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 45% 2.01 -9.6%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.58 -14.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.71 -17.9%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
VILLARREAL FACTORS
+30% Rayo home edge real but Villarreal's quality gap (3rd place, +24 GD) limits upside; draw likely.
+25% Villarreal 3rd (69pts, +24 GD) vs Rayo 10th (44pts, -6 GD) — significant quality gap
+20% Rayo home form WDWDW inconsistent; Villarreal away form LDDWL weak (1W in 5)
+15% Recent H2H volatile: Rayo 2-0 (2026), Villarreal 4-0 (2025) — context-dependent outcomes
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Alemão
HOM · F · 4g/9
38%
2
Georges Mikautadze
AWY · F · 12g/31
23%
3
Jorge de Frutos
HOM · M · 10g/34
14%
4
Alberto Moleiro
AWY · M · 10g/35
13%
5
Álvaro García
HOM · 6g/12
13%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Rayo Valle...
2
Draw
6
Villarreal
01 Nov 4-0
22 Feb 0-1
18 Dec 1-1
28 Apr 3-0
24 Sep 1-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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