⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Alaves
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Alaves
29%
Draw
33%
Athletic C...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
36%
31%
34%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
43%
20%
37%
DL
25% WEIGHT
38%
29%
33%
FINAL BLEND
38%
29%
33%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.02 vs 0.98
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
46%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
51%
BTTS NO
49%
💎 VALUE BETS
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
·
Evenly matched midtable teams with conflicting signals; draw is the most defensive estimate.
·
Athletic Club slight quality edge (10th vs 17th) but Alaves home form resilient (LWDDD)
·
H2H volatile (2-4 loss today vs 1-0 win in Sept) — context-dependent; Athletic away form weak (WLLLD)
·
Both xG-starved by league metrics; low-scoring pattern expected (SportMonks 55.6% Under 2.5)
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
45%
Toni Martínez
HOM · F · 11g/33
2
39%
Gorka Guruzeta
AWY · F · 9g/31
3
16%
L. Boyé
HOM · 11g/27
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Alaves
3
Draw
5
Athletic C...
13 Sep
0-1
11 May
1-0
15 Dec
1-1
16 Mar
2-0
16 Jan
2-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.