TOP PICK
Lille
PROJECTED: 2-0
64%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
64%
Lille
22%
Draw
14%
Auxerre
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
72%
18%
10%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
75%
12%
13%
DL
25% WEIGHT
64%
22%
14%
FINAL BLEND
64%
22%
14%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 0
xG 2.20 vs 0.70
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
3-0
0.0%
4
2-1
0.0%
5
1-1
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
42%
BTTS NO
58%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
·
Lille clear favourite at home; quality gap and form split favour hosts but Auxerre's road struggles limit blow-out risk.
·
Lille 3rd (61 pts) vs Auxerre 15th (31 pts) — 30-point gap with +17 GD advantage
·
Lille home form DDWLD is weak (only 1W in 5) but Auxerre away form LDDLD is worse (0W in 5)
·
Bookmaker Home Win 66.7% close to AI 64% — no material disagreement; slight under-lay on home odds
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
34%
Matías Fernández-Pardo
HOM · F · 8g/26
2
27%
Hamza Igamane
HOM · 4g/5
3
23%
Lassine Sinayoko
AWY · M · 12g/32
4
16%
H. Haraldsson
HOM · M · 8g/31
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
5
Lille
4
Draw
1
Auxerre
14 Dec
3-4
20 Apr
3-1
10 Jan
0-0
22 Apr
1-1
07 Aug
4-1
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.