TOP PICK
Swansea
PROJECTED: 2-1
52%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
52%
Swansea
26%
Draw
22%
Charlton
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
66%
20%
15%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
60%
16%
23%
DL
25% WEIGHT
52%
26%
22%
FINAL BLEND
52%
26%
22%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.12 vs 0.88
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
2-0
0.0%
2
1-0
0.0%
3
2-1
0.0%
4
1-1
0.0%
5
3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
💎 VALUE BETS
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
SWANSEA FACTORS
+25%
Swansea 8 pts ahead, better GF (54 vs 43) and lower GA (58 vs 55) — quality edge
CONTEXT
·
Swansea slight home favourite on quality gap, but Charlton's away form resilience keeps this competitive.
·
Swansea home form mixed (LDLWD) vs Charlton away form solid (DDDWD) — edge narrow
·
Bookmaker odds (51.8% home) align with data; SportMonks (44.2%) appears underweighting quality gap
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
100%
Žan Vipotnik
HOM · F · 23g/44
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Swansea
1
Draw
0
Charlton
01 Nov
1-1
02 Jan
1-0
02 Oct
1-2
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.