GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Swansea
Sat, 02 May · 11:30
Championship
Charlton
TOP PICK
Swansea
PROJECTED: 2-1
52%
CONF 58
WIN PROBABILITY
52%
Swansea
26%
Draw
22%
Charlton
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
66% 20% 15%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
60% 16% 23%
DL 25% WEIGHT
52% 26% 22%
FINAL BLEND
52% 26% 22%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.12 vs 0.88
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 2-1
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
💎 VALUE BETS
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.66 -3.8%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.84 -4.3%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 78% 1.23 -4.4%
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 26% 3.67 -4.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.76 -4.9%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 74% 1.25 -7.3%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.91 -8.1%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 22% 4.02 -11.6%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
SWANSEA FACTORS
+25% Swansea 8 pts ahead, better GF (54 vs 43) and lower GA (58 vs 55) — quality edge
CONTEXT
· Swansea slight home favourite on quality gap, but Charlton's away form resilience keeps this competitive.
· Swansea home form mixed (LDLWD) vs Charlton away form solid (DDDWD) — edge narrow
· Bookmaker odds (51.8% home) align with data; SportMonks (44.2%) appears underweighting quality gap
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Žan Vipotnik
HOM · F · 23g/44
100%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Swansea
1
Draw
0
Charlton
01 Nov 1-1
02 Jan 1-0
02 Oct 1-2
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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