GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Excelsior
Sun, 10 May · 14:45
Eredivisie
FC Volendam
TOP PICK
Excelsior
PROJECTED: 1-1
51%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
51%
Excelsior
25%
Draw
24%
FC Volenda...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
40% 31% 29%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
59% 15% 26%
DL 25% WEIGHT
51% 25% 24%
FINAL BLEND
51% 25% 24%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.11 vs 0.89
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
62%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
60%
BTTS NO
40%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 24% 4.41 +5.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.62 +0.6%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 49% 2.05 +0.6%
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 25% 3.82 -4.6%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 60% 1.58 -5.3%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 75% 1.23 -7.4%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 76% 1.20 -8.9%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 51% 1.74 -11.4%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
CONTEXT
· Evenly matched struggling teams; slight home edge but draw highly plausible — market fairly priced.
· Both teams in relegation zone (14th vs 16th) with similar goal differential
· Home form WLLLL vs away form WLLLL — both collapsing in their contexts
· Bookmaker odds align with AI (home 54% vs AI 51%) — no significant mispricing detected
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Noah Naujoks
HOM · M · 9g/30
100%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
6
Excelsior
2
Draw
2
FC Volenda...
20 Sep 1-2
12 Apr 4-0
29 Oct 3-1
28 May 3-2
20 Jan 2-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
← Back to match