⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Aston Villa
PROJECTED: 2-2
54%
CONF 62
WIN PROBABILITY
18%
Burnley
28%
Draw
54%
Aston Vill...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
34%
21%
45%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
19%
19%
63%
DL
25% WEIGHT
18%
28%
54%
FINAL BLEND
18%
28%
54%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 2
xG 1.86 vs 2.14
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-2
0.0%
2
1-1
0.0%
3
2-2
0.0%
4
2-1
0.0%
5
1-3
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
72%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
88%
BTTS NO
12%
💎 VALUE BETS
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
BURNLEY FACTORS
+15%
Burnley in freefall (LLLLL) vs Villa's mixed form (WLLLW); home form splits favour neither team decisively
CONTEXT
·
Tied 2-2 at 90'; Villa slightly favoured in extra time given quality gap and form edge, but draw most realistic outcome.
·
Match at full-time with 2-2 scoreline — draw carries highest probability given fixture symmetry
·
Villa quality dominance (5th vs 19th, +14 point gap) makes them slight ET favourites if match continues
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
25%
Zian Flemming
HOM · F · 10g/27
2
25%
Ollie Watkins
AWY · F · 5g/14
3
24%
Ollie Watkins
AWY · F · 12g/35
4
17%
John McGinn
AWY · M · 5g/11
5
9%
Morgan Rogers
AWY · M · 9g/36
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Burnley
3
Draw
5
Aston Vill...
05 Oct
2-1
30 Dec
3-2
27 Aug
1-3
19 May
1-1
07 May
1-3
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.