TOP PICK
Guimaraes
PROJECTED: 1-0
45%
CONF 38
WIN PROBABILITY
45%
Guimaraes
38%
Draw
17%
Arouca
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
43%
31%
26%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
52%
30%
18%
DL
25% WEIGHT
45%
38%
17%
FINAL BLEND
45%
38%
17%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.11 vs 0.79
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
38%
BTTS NO
62%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
14 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
Early scoreline (0-0 at 5') leaves match wide open; home slight edge but data is thin.
·
Only 5 minutes played — too early to anchor on current 0-0
·
Guimaraes home form mixed (LWWLD) vs Arouca road form weak (WLLWL)
·
H2H volatile: last 3 meetings all draws or close (0-0, 3-2, 1-1, 2-2) — expect competitive match
⚽ NEXT GOALSCORER
1
37%
Ivan Barbero
AWY · F · 8g/31
2
22%
Alfonso Trezza
AWY · M · 9g/32
3
22%
Samu
HOM · M · 7g/26
4
19%
Hyun-ju Lee
AWY · M · 7g/30
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Guimaraes
4
Draw
3
Arouca
07 Feb
3-2
30 Aug
1-1
18 Jan
2-2
12 Aug
0-1
18 May
1-3
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.