GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Fiorentina
Sun, 26 Apr · 10:30
Serie A
Sassuolo
TOP PICK
Fiorentina
PROJECTED: 1-0
48%
CONF 54
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Fiorentina
32%
Draw
20%
Sassuolo
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
43% 31% 26%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
56% 23% 21%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 32% 20%
FINAL BLEND
48% 32% 20%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.11 vs 0.79
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
38%
BTTS NO
62%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 3.38 +8.2%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 80% 1.26 +0.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.88 -2.3%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 1.98 -4.9%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.82 -5.3%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 68% 1.30 -11.5%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 20% 3.94 -21.1%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 1.71 -35.0%
CONTEXT
· Scoreless at 27'; Fiorentina slight home favourite but Sassuolo compact. Expect 1-0 or draw.
· Fiorentina home form (WWDWD) + Sassuolo weak away (LDLWW) support home edge
· Scoreless at 27' with no major chances — low-tempo start suggests cautious play
· Fiorentina below-average season (15th, -7 GD) vs mid-table Sassuolo — quality even
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
A. Guðmundsson
HOM · F · 5g/11
46%
2
Andrea Pinamonti
AWY · F · 8g/32
26%
3
C. Ndour
HOM · M · 4g/12
19%
4
M. Kean
HOM · 8g/26
9%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Fiorentina
3
Draw
4
Sassuolo
06 Dec 3-1
28 Apr 5-1
06 Jan 1-0
02 Jun 1-3
07 Jan 2-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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