GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
FC Astana
Thu, 16 Jul · 15:00
Europa Conference League
Dinamo Tirana
TOP PICK
FC Astana
PROJECTED: 1-0
55%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
55%
FC Astana
28%
Draw
17%
Dinamo Tir...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
45% 31% 24%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
64% 19% 17%
DL 25% WEIGHT
55% 28% 17%
FINAL BLEND
55% 28% 17%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.15 vs 0.75
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
28%
BTTS NO
72%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 4.43 +24.1%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 45% 2.67 +20.4%
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 17% 6.35 +7.9%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 83% 1.09 -9.9%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 72% 1.16 -16.7%
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 55% 1.41 -22.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 1.73 -27.1%
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 1.94 -45.7%
FC ASTANA FACTORS
+25% FC Astana excellent home form (WWWDW) vs limited Tirana away data
CONTEXT
· Early in first half; Astana clear favourite on form but Tirana's away record opaque — monitor xG and intensity.
· Astana won 1-0 away last week; momentum favours home team
· Match only 1' in — probabilities will shift significantly with xG and chances created
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Ramazan Karimov
HOM · F · 0g/1
27%
2
Hekuran Berisha
AWY · F · 0g/1
27%
3
Marin Tomasov
HOM · M · 0g/1
15%
4
Ivan Bašić
HOM · M · 0g/1
15%
5
Dinmukhamed Karaman
HOM · M · 0g/1
15%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
0
FC Astana
1
Draw
0
Dinamo Tir...
09 Jul 0-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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