GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Derby
Sat, 02 May · 11:30
Championship
Sheffield Utd
TOP PICK
Derby
PROJECTED: 2-1
58%
CONF 62
WIN PROBABILITY
58%
Derby
26%
Draw
16%
Sheffield...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
68% 19% 13%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
68% 16% 16%
DL 25% WEIGHT
58% 26% 16%
FINAL BLEND
58% 26% 16%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.17 vs 0.83
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 2-1
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
54%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 26% 3.92 +1.9%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 84% 1.20 +1.1%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.73 +0.5%
Both Teams Score — YES
8 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.60 -7.3%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 74% 1.22 -9.6%
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 54% 1.62 -12.3%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 42% 2.02 -15.0%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 16% 4.21 -32.6%
DERBY FACTORS
+30% Derby's home dominance (WWWWW) and table position edge outweigh Sheffield's recent form; lean home but not a lock.
+25% Derby perfect at home (WWWWW last 5) vs Sheffield poor away (WLDLW)
+20% Derby +12 pts and +9 GD on season — clear quality edge at Pride Park
+15% Sheffield's recent form (LLWWL) shows volatility; Derby stable midtable
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Patrick Bamford
AWY · 12g/27
40%
2
Carlton Morris
HOM · 12g/30
36%
3
Patrick Agyemang
HOM · 10g/37
24%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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