GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Deportivo Alavés III
Sun, 26 Apr · 16:00
Tercera División RFEF -...
Derio
TOP PICK
Deportivo Alavés III
PROJECTED: 2-1
48%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Deportivo...
32%
Draw
20%
Derio
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
65% 20% 15%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
56% 23% 21%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 32% 20%
FINAL BLEND
48% 32% 20%
PREDICTED SCORE
2 - 1
xG 2.11 vs 0.89
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 2-0
0.0%
2 1-0
0.0%
3 2-1
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 3-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
62%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
CONTEXT
· Early stages with thin data; home advantage + recent H2H suggests slight Alavés edge but high uncertainty remains.
· Only 5 minutes played — scoreline and momentum will shift probabilities significantly
· H2H favours home (won 3-2 in Dec, split record overall) — home team edge established
· Home form DW and away form DL slightly favour home, but sample is minimal
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Deportivo...
2
Draw
2
Derio
20 Dec 2-3
10 May 1-1
11 Jan 2-0
05 May 1-1
14 Jan 1-0
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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