TOP PICK
Casa Pia
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 35
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Casa Pia
32%
Draw
30%
Tondela
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
36%
31%
33%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
43%
23%
34%
DL
25% WEIGHT
38%
32%
30%
FINAL BLEND
38%
32%
30%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.03 vs 0.97
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
TONDELA FACTORS
+20%
Tondela bottom-half relegation form (17th, 22 pts; GD -29) — slight desperation factor
CONTEXT
·
Both teams struggling; thin data and poor form make this a near coin-flip — treat with caution.
·
Casa Pia slight home edge (LDDDW at home vs Tondela DLLWD away), but both inconsistent
·
Extremely limited data: no season xG, no H2H, missing lineups — confidence capped at 35%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.