GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Aston Villa
Fri, 15 May · 19:00
Premier League
Liverpool
TOP PICK
Aston Villa
PROJECTED: 1-1
48%
CONF 45
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Aston Vill...
28%
Draw
24%
Liverpool
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
40% 31% 30%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
55% 19% 26%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 28% 24%
FINAL BLEND
48% 28% 24%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.10 vs 0.90
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
LIVERPOOL FACTORS
+30% Tied on points; Villa's dominant home form vs Liverpool's poor away record creates narrow edge for draw.
+25% Villa 4-1 at home (WLWWW) vs Liverpool 1-4 away (LWLLL) — stark form split favours Villa
+15% Liverpool's recent form stronger overall (DLWWL) but collapses on road — conflicting signals
CONTEXT
· Equal league position (both 59 pts) but Villa at Villa Park (+home advantage)
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
John McGinn
HOM · 5g/11
25%
2
Hugo Ekitiké
AWY · 11g/28
22%
3
Ollie Watkins
HOM · 5g/14
20%
4
Ollie Watkins
HOM · 12g/35
19%
5
Morgan Rogers
HOM · 9g/36
14%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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