GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Arouca
Sat, 02 May · 14:30
Primeira Liga
Santa Clara
TOP PICK
Arouca
PROJECTED: 1-0
48%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Arouca
28%
Draw
24%
Santa Clar...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
42% 31% 27%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
55% 19% 26%
DL 25% WEIGHT
48% 28% 24%
FINAL BLEND
48% 28% 24%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.10 vs 0.80
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
38%
BTTS NO
62%
AROUCA FACTORS
+20% Season GF favours Arouca (39 vs 28) but GA alarm (60 vs 38) — weak defence undermines home edge
CONTEXT
· Arouca slight home favourite but thin data; Santa Clara's road weakness (DLWDD) is the key lever.
· Arouca home form (WWLWW) vs Santa Clara away form (DLWDD) — home split notably stronger
· Both teams mid-table inconsistent; no xG/clean sheet data available, reducing confidence
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Alfonso Trezza
HOM · 8g/29
53%
2
Ivan Barbero
HOM · 7g/28
48%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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