⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Arouca
PROJECTED: 1-0
48%
CONF 38
WIN PROBABILITY
48%
Arouca
31%
Draw
21%
Moreirense
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
43%
31%
26%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
56%
22%
22%
DL
25% WEIGHT
48%
31%
21%
FINAL BLEND
48%
31%
21%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.11 vs 0.79
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
42%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
48%
BTTS NO
52%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AROUCA FACTORS
+30%
Early-match tie with limited data; Arouca slight home favourite but H2H volatility and thin stats warrant caution.
CONTEXT
·
Only 3 minutes played — current 0-0 is neutral baseline, no momentum signal yet
·
Arouca home form WDWWL vs Moreirense away form LLDLD strongly favours home
·
H2H wild (3-1 Moreirense win, 2-0 loss, 1-0 wins for Arouca) — no clear edge, splits draws
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
36%
Ivan Barbero
HOM · F · 8g/31
2
25%
Guilherme Schettine
AWY · 9g/15
3
22%
Alfonso Trezza
HOM · M · 9g/32
4
18%
Hyun-ju Lee
HOM · M · 7g/30
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Arouca
2
Draw
5
Moreirense
21 Mar
0-1
02 Nov
0-2
24 Jan
1-0
18 Aug
3-1
17 Mar
1-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.