GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Arda Kardzhali
Sun, 26 Apr · 16:00
First League
Botev Plovdiv
TOP PICK
Draw
PROJECTED: 1-0
48%
CONF 52
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Arda Kardz...
48%
Draw
14%
Botev Plov...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
42% 31% 27%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
44% 41% 15%
DL 25% WEIGHT
38% 48% 14%
FINAL BLEND
38% 48% 14%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 0
xG 1.10 vs 0.80
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 1-0
0.0%
2 0-0
0.0%
3 1-1
0.0%
4 0-1
0.0%
5 2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
OVER 2.5
32%
OVER 3.5
BTTS YES
28%
BTTS NO
72%
💎 VALUE BETS
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 48% 3.02 +45.0%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 86% 1.37 +17.6%
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 38% 2.50 -5.1%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.50 -7.1%
Over 2.5 Goals
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 32% 2.26 -27.6%
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 52% 1.33 -30.9%
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 28% 1.89 -47.0%
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 14% 2.80 -60.8%
CONTEXT
· Early stalemate with Botev picking up cards; slight home edge but draw most likely given 0-0 at 19'.
· 0-0 at 19' — draw is baseline; 71 minutes remain for late goals
· Arda home form mixed (DWWL) but H2H shows Arda dominance (5-0 win, 1 clean sheet)
· Botev on road weak (DLLW) and two early yellows suggest defensive discipline issues
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Pedro Igor
AWY · F · 0g/1
27%
2
Patrick
HOM · F · 0g/1
27%
3
Lucas Araujo
AWY · M · 0g/1
15%
4
Carlos Algarra López
AWY · M · 0g/1
15%
5
Samuel Kalu
AWY · M · 0g/1
15%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
6
Arda Kardz...
2
Draw
2
Botev Plov...
02 Dec 0-0
04 Aug 0-5
09 Mar 1-1
23 Sep 1-0
27 May 0-1
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
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