TOP PICK
Alaves
PROJECTED: 1-1
44%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
44%
Alaves
28%
Draw
28%
Mallorca
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
38%
31%
31%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
51%
19%
31%
DL
25% WEIGHT
44%
28%
28%
FINAL BLEND
44%
28%
28%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.06 vs 0.94
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
46%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
55%
BTTS NO
45%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
ALAVES FACTORS
+25%
Alaves home form WDDDL is drastically weak — only 1 win in last 5 at Mendizorroza
MALLORCA FACTORS
+20%
Mallorca on road LLDLL shows zero away confidence; both teams fighting relegation (positions 16–17)
CONTEXT
·
Relegation-battle stalemate: Alaves' home form is abysmal (WDDDL), Mallorca's away form worse (LLDLL); draw most likely.
·
H2H split: recent head-to-head shows narrow margins (2–1, 1–0, 1–1, 1–0, 1–1) — low-scoring tendency
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
47%
Vedat Muriqi
AWY · F · 21g/32
2
29%
Lucas Boyé
HOM · F · 11g/27
3
24%
Toni Martínez
HOM · F · 11g/32
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
3
Alaves
3
Draw
4
Mallorca
27 Sep
1-0
02 Mar
1-1
01 Nov
1-0
24 Feb
1-1
03 Dec
0-0
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.