GOALSENSE
⚡ AI PREDICTION
Alaves
Wed, 13 May · 19:30
La Liga
Barcelona
TOP PICK
Barcelona
PROJECTED: 1-2
59%
CONF 68
WIN PROBABILITY
18%
Alaves
23%
Draw
59%
Barcelona
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON 30% WEIGHT
13% 19% 68%
ELO 30% WEIGHT
18% 13% 69%
DL 25% WEIGHT
18% 23% 59%
FINAL BLEND
18% 23% 59%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 2
xG 0.84 vs 2.16
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1 0-2
0.0%
2 0-1
0.0%
3 1-2
0.0%
4 1-1
0.0%
5 0-3
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
58%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
62%
BTTS NO
38%
💎 VALUE BETS
AWAY to Win
33 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 59% 2.08 +22.6%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 82% 1.34 +10.0%
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 77% 1.25 -3.9%
Both Teams Score — YES
18 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 62% 1.43 -11.3%
Draw
33 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 23% 3.75 -13.8%
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 58% 1.48 -14.2%
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 41% 1.72 -29.5%
HOME to Win
33 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AI 18% 3.23 -41.9%
📈 SPORTMONKS PREDICTIONS
BARCELONA FACTORS
+30% Barcelona heavy away favourites; massive quality gap (1st vs 19th, xGD ~2) and strong away form (WWWWD) dominate.
+15% Bookmaker odds (45.5% away) underestimate Barcelona's dominance; SportMonks (63.8% away) more aligned with underlying quality
CONTEXT
· Extreme league position gap (91 pts vs 37 pts) + GF/GA differential (91/31 vs 41/54)
· Barcelona away form WWWWD vs Alaves home form LWDDD — quality mismatch on both splits
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
Lamine Yamal
AWY · 6g/10
22%
2
Lamine Yamal
AWY · 16g/28
21%
3
Fermín López
AWY · 6g/11
20%
4
Raphinha
AWY · 11g/21
19%
5
Ferran Torres
AWY · 16g/31
19%
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
📖 Methodology
  • · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
  • · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
  • · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
  • · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.
← Back to match