⚡ AI PREDICTION
TOP PICK
Alaves
PROJECTED: 1-1
38%
CONF 48
WIN PROBABILITY
38%
Alaves
28%
Draw
34%
Athletic C...
🤖 AI MODEL BLEND
POISSON
30% WEIGHT
35%
31%
34%
ELO
30% WEIGHT
43%
19%
38%
DL
25% WEIGHT
38%
28%
34%
FINAL BLEND
38%
28%
34%
PREDICTED SCORE
1 - 1
xG 1.02 vs 0.98
🎯 TOP CORRECT-SCORES
1
1-0
0.0%
2
0-0
0.0%
3
1-1
0.0%
4
0-1
0.0%
5
2-0
0.0%
📊 GOAL MARKETS
OVER 1.5
—
OVER 2.5
52%
OVER 3.5
—
BTTS YES
58%
BTTS NO
42%
💎 VALUE BETS
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
CONTEXT
·
Evenly matched on quality; Alaves home form is weak (WDDDL), Athletic Club away form is poor (LLLDW) — lean draw.
·
Alaves 16th place, Athletic Club 10th — modest quality gap favours away; both teams struggling
·
Alaves home form WDDDL (only 1W in 5) vs Athletic Club away form LLLDW (very poor) cancel out home advantage
·
H2H split: recent games tight (0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 in last 4), suggests low-margin outcomes
⚽ PROJECTED SCORERS
1
39%
Lucas Boyé
HOM · 11g/27
2
33%
Toni Martínez
HOM · 11g/32
3
29%
Gorka Guruzeta
AWY · 9g/30
📊 AI TRACK RECORD
0
CALLS
0%
HIT RATE
0.000
BRIER
⚔ HEAD-TO-HEAD
2
Alaves
3
Draw
5
Athletic C...
13 Sep
0-1
11 May
1-0
15 Dec
1-1
16 Mar
2-0
22 Sep
0-2
📖 Methodology
- · Multi-model blend: Poisson + ELO + Deep Learning + Claude reasoning
- · Weights re-calibrated weekly based on Brier score
- · Live-adjusted on goals, cards, and substitutions
- · Predictions are AI-generated probabilities, not advice. Bet responsibly.